Destined for War | Graham Allison
“Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” is a book written by Graham Allison, a prominent political scientist and a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. The book, published in 2017, explores the idea of the “Thucydides’s Trap”, a term coined by Allison himself. The concept refers to a dangerous pattern that emerges when a rising power threatens to displace an established power, often leading to war. Allison takes inspiration from Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian who wrote about the Peloponnesian War.
In “Destined for War”, Allison uses historical case studies to examine how this “Thucydides’s Trap” has played out in history. He looks at 16 instances over the last 500 years where a rising power confronted a ruling one, and found that 12 of these instances resulted in war.
Allison’s primary concern in this book is the dynamic between the United States and China. As China’s economic and military capabilities grow, it poses a potential threat to the United States’ global dominance. He argues that this situation between the U.S. and China fits the pattern of the “Thucydides’s Trap”, thereby increasing the chances of war between these two nations.
Allison doesn’t definitively conclude that war is inevitable but cautions that if both parties fail to take proactive measures to avoid conflict, they could inadvertently stumble into war. He discusses the need for great diplomatic skill, foresight, and imagination to change the potentially disastrous trajectory. The book ends by offering potential solutions to escape the trap, including the cultivation of deep mutual understanding, strategic reassessment, and the exploration of cooperative efforts in areas of common interest.
While Allison’s theory has received much attention, it has also been critiqued. Some critics argue that his interpretation of Thucydides and his historical case studies is too simplistic, while others argue that the U.S. and China are not destined for war due to the high costs of modern warfare, nuclear deterrence, and economic interdependence. Regardless of these debates, “Destined for War” remains a significant contribution to discussions about U.S.-China relations and the broader discourse on power transitions in international relations.
Graham Allison
Graham Allison is an American political scientist and a professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He is best known for his contributions to the study of U.S. national security and defense policy, as well as being one of the founding members of the discipline of international security studies.
Allison was born on March 23, 1940, in Charlotte, North Carolina. He earned his bachelor’s degree at Davidson College in North Carolina and then went on to earn his Ph.D. in political science at Harvard University in 1968.
In his professional career, Allison served as Dean of the Kennedy School from 1977 to 1989. During his time as Dean, he founded the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Center for Public Leadership. He also served as the director of Harvard’s Belfer Center from 1995 until 2017.
Allison is well known for his book “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis,” published in 1971, which is considered one of the most influential political science books in the field of decision-making theory and international relations. In this book, he introduced the “governmental politics model” or the “bureaucratic politics model,” where he presents the idea that decisions are the result of bureaucratic infighting, negotiation, and compromise.
In 2017, Allison gained a new wave of attention with the publication of his book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”. The book explores the concept of Thucydides’s Trap, referring to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, it often leads to war.
In addition to his academic work, Allison has served as a consultant to the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Security Council, among others. He has also been awarded various honors for his contributions to political science and policy.
Themes in Destined for War
Thucydides’s Trap: This is the central theme of the book. It is a concept coined by Allison that refers to the dynamic when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, which often leads to war. Allison applies this idea to the current relationship between the U.S. and China.
Power Transition: The book explores the process and implications of power shifts in international relations, particularly the ongoing economic and military rise of China and how it challenges the dominance of the United States.
Historical Precedence: Allison draws extensively from history to build his argument. He analyzes 16 case studies from the last 500 years where a rising power confronted a ruling one, highlighting the relevance of historical precedents.
Conflict and War: The possibility of war resulting from the dynamics of Thucydides’s Trap is a major concern throughout the book. Allison discusses the risks and potential pathways to conflict.
Diplomacy and Peacekeeping: Along with the potential for conflict, Allison discusses the role of diplomacy, strategic planning, and political leadership in avoiding war and maintaining peace.
Interconnected Global Economy: The book recognizes the global economic landscape where the U.S. and China are deeply interconnected. This theme questions the feasibility of war in the modern age due to economic interdependence.
Mutual Understanding: Allison emphasizes the importance of understanding each other’s perspectives and cultures to avoid misperceptions and miscalculations that could lead to conflict.
Future of International Relations: The book also prompts readers to think about the future trajectory of international relations, particularly the evolving power dynamic between the U.S. and China.
By exploring these themes, Allison aims to offer insights and provoke discussions on the crucial issue of Sino-American relations in the 21st century.
Thucydides’s Trap
Thucydides’s Trap is a term coined by political scientist Graham Allison, referring to the often dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace an established power. The term is named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who famously observed this pattern in his account of the Peloponnesian War. Thucydides wrote, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”
When applied to modern global politics, the Thucydides’s Trap refers to a potentially deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This pattern is not only about the shifts in power capabilities but also how each side perceives its own role and the other’s intent.
As the rising power gains strength and influence, it seeks to assert itself more forcefully on the international stage. The ruling power, on the other hand, might feel threatened and become more defensive, striving to protect its position of dominance. These changes often lead to a series of escalations and could even result in war if not managed carefully.
Allison’s concept of the Thucydides’s Trap does not argue that war is inevitable when such power shifts occur. However, he suggests that the historical pattern indicates a significant propensity towards conflict in such situations. His analysis of the past 500 years revealed 16 cases where a rising power threatened to displace a major ruling power, and 12 of these resulted in war.
The concept is most often invoked in the context of the current relationship between the United States, the world’s reigning superpower, and China, a rising power. Allison’s “Destined for War” explores whether or not these two nations can escape the Thucydides’s Trap.
However, the Thucydides’s Trap has been met with both interest and critique from the international relations community. Some argue that the theory is overly simplistic or deterministic, while others contend that the modern world—with economic interdependence, nuclear deterrence, and norms against warfare—provides mechanisms for peaceful power transitions that didn’t exist in Thucydides’s time.
Thucydides
Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian and general who lived from approximately 460 to 400 BC. He’s primarily known for his work “The History of the Peloponnesian War,” which recounts the 5th-century BC war between Sparta and Athens. This work is considered a foundational text in the field of history because of its careful, fact-based approach and its critical analysis of the causes and outcomes of the war.
In “The History of the Peloponnesian War,” Thucydides presented a deep analysis of the nature of political power, the obligations and consequences of citizenship, and the disastrous effects of demagoguery and political corruption. He’s often credited with being one of the first historians to approach his work with a rigorous, fact-based method, in contrast to the more mythological or anecdotal approaches of earlier historians.
Thucydides’s observations about the dynamics of power, and particularly the tensions that arise when a rising power challenges an established one, have had a profound influence on political theory and international relations. This concept is often referred to as “Thucydides’s Trap,” a term popularized by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the potential for conflict when a rising power, like China, threatens to displace an existing power, like the United States.
Criticisms
Simplistic Interpretation of Thucydides: Some scholars argue that Allison’s use of Thucydides is too simplistic. They suggest that he focuses only on a specific aspect of Thucydides’ complex analysis of the Peloponnesian War—the rivalry between a rising and an established power—while overlooking other crucial factors Thucydides cited as contributing to war, such as domestic politics, alliances, honor, and fear.
Limited Historical Case Studies: Critics argue that the sixteen case studies that Allison uses to validate his theory are selective and limited. They suggest that a broader historical analysis might yield different results. Also, some of the cases are contentious, and scholars have disputed whether they genuinely represent a rising power threatening a status quo power.
Determinism and Inevitability: Critics have argued against the deterministic implication of the Thucydides’s Trap—that war is a likely outcome when a rising power confronts an established one. They contend that this ignores the agency of political leaders and the complexities of international relations.
Ignoring Modern Factors: Critics point out that Allison’s theory doesn’t sufficiently consider the realities of modern geopolitics, such as the threat of nuclear warfare, the cost of modern warfare, global economic interdependence, and the international diplomatic and legal institutions that work to prevent conflict.
Undervaluing the Role of Allies: Some argue that Allison’s analysis focuses too heavily on the U.S. and China, underplaying the role of allies and regional dynamics, which can significantly influence international relations.
Sensationalism: Some critics have suggested that Allison’s framing of the U.S.-China dynamic as a “trap” could be sensationalistic, raising alarm unnecessarily, and perhaps creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Summary of Destined for War
Introduction to the Thucydides’s Trap
This is where Allison first introduces the concept of the Thucydides’s Trap and explains its historical basis. He lays out the premise of the book and the questions he intends to explore.
Historical Case Studies: In this part, Allison presents an analysis of historical instances where a rising power has threatened to displace an existing power. He examines 16 such cases from the last 500 years, of which 12 resulted in war. These case studies serve to demonstrate the common patterns and outcomes when established powers are challenged by rising ones.
Case Selection: Allison selects cases from the past five centuries, focusing on situations where a rising power threatened to displace an existing world power. The choice of cases spans various continents, cultures, and periods, ranging from the rise of Habsburg Spain in the 16th century to the Cold War competition between the United States and the Soviet Union in the 20th century.
Analysis of Outcomes: In these case studies, Allison identifies that in 12 out of the 16 instances, the outcome was a war between the rising and ruling powers. This demonstrates the inherent risk associated with the Thucydides’s Trap.
Detailed Examination: Each case is analyzed in detail to understand the dynamics that led to war or peace. This allows Allison to extract relevant lessons that could be applied to contemporary U.S.-China relations.
Insights and Patterns: Through these case studies, Allison identifies common patterns, such as misjudgments, strategic miscalculations, and unforeseen incidents that often escalate tensions and can trigger war.
While the book delves into these historical case studies to understand the dynamics between rising and ruling powers, its ultimate goal is to apply these lessons to the current U.S.-China relationship, urging leaders to understand historical patterns to avoid the Thucydides’s Trap. The hope is that by learning from history, the United States and China might better navigate their complex relationship and avoid conflict.
The US-China Dynamic
The final section of the book is where Allison applies the concept of the Thucydides’s Trap to the current situation between the United States and China. He explores various facets of this complex relationship, looking at both the risks and the opportunities.
Graham Allison applies the concept of Thucydides’s Trap to the evolving relationship between the United States and China. This section can generally be understood in the following way:
The Rising Power and Established Power: Allison points out that China, with its rapid economic growth, military expansion, and increasing global influence, is a rising power, while the United States, as the world’s current leading economic and military power, is the established power. He describes the significant challenges that this dynamic presents for both countries and the global community.
Potential Conflict Scenarios: Allison explores potential situations where conflict may arise between the two nations. These include areas such as trade and economics, territorial disputes (like the South China Sea), cyber warfare, and the role of Taiwan.
Misjudgments and Miscalculations: The book analyzes the risks of misjudgments and strategic miscalculations, echoing the patterns identified in the historical case studies. This includes not just policy decisions, but also accidents or incidents that could escalate into larger conflicts.
Role of Leadership: Allison examines the crucial role of leadership in managing the power transition between the two countries. He stresses the importance of mutual understanding, clear communication, and smart diplomacy in avoiding the Thucydides’s Trap.
Strategies for Avoiding Conflict: Despite the potential for conflict, Allison emphasizes that war is not inevitable. He proposes strategies for both nations to avoid the Thucydides’s Trap, such as creating “off-ramps” to deescalate potential crises, establishing more robust communication and understanding between the two powers, and rethinking their respective roles in a changing world.
By applying the lessons from history to the current relationship between the U.S. and China, Allison’s goal is to encourage policymakers and leaders to act wisely to prevent a catastrophic conflict.
Allison concludes the book by pondering whether war between the U.S. and China is inevitable or whether they can escape the Thucydides’s Trap. He offers potential solutions and strategies for navigating this critical juncture in international relations.